This is the second of three book reviews, with the books having in common the topic of human fallibility. In my last blog, I reviewed The Invisible Gorilla. This review is on Why We Make Mistakes. The third and final review will be on the simply titled Careful.
Why We Make Mistakes
Why We Make Mistakes, subtitled, How We Look Without Seeing, Forget Things in Seconds, and Are All Pretty Sure We Are Way Above Average, is another book about why we make so many mistakes.
There are a lot of different kinds of mistakes we make. Human error accounts for 70% of airplane crashes, 90% (I would have guessed over 99%) of car wrecks, and 90% of workplace accidents. We are all afflicted with certain systemic biases in the way we see, remember, and perceive the world. These make us prone to commit certain kinds of errors. We aren’t wired the way we think we are. We learn little from experience because we blame the wrong cause.
We Look but Don’t Always See
We see a fraction of what we think we see. Our field of vision is small. Major changes can happen in a blink of an eye and we don’t notice. Our eyes have high resolution for only two degrees. Out from there is progressively blurry. We also tend to see what we expect to see. That’s why we can look right at something and not see it. That’s why radiologists miss tumors and TSA inspectors miss guns. They don’t expect to find them.
We Wear Rose-Colored Glasses
We remember our school grades as higher than they were. Witnesses, when there is a tape recording, always remember wrong and always inflate their own importance. Gamblers remember wins and when they lose, they remember those episodes as near wins. Doctors think 86% of other doctors are influenced by drug companies, but only 16% think they personally are influenced. Financial advisers are similarly biased. Knowing the bias doesn’t stop its effect.
We Can Walk and Chew Gum—but Not Much Else
Humans are unable to multitask. We think we can because we can switch tasks rapidly. But it is inefficient to do so. Gains from multitasking are illusory. We work more slowly.
Cells phones can be hands-free, but this doesn’t solve the problem. The problem is our minds are occupied, which means we aren’t paying attention to our driving. Hands-free cell phone driving is just as dangerous as using our hands. Or course, texting while driving is far worse.
We Skim
We tend to skim what we read more than we realize. Many errors are so common that proofreaders simply don’t see them. This happens with writing of words but also of music. Rookies will catch the errors sometimes because they aren’t looking for anything specific. That’s why school kids find errors in NASA calculations. The more familiar we become with something, the more details we miss—we’re skimming more.
We Like Things Tidy
People tend to take the bends out of rivers when they draw a map. Ask someone to compare the relative positions San Diego and Reno. Most know the San Diego is south of Reno. But most will also say that Reno is east of San Diego, which it isn’t. (If you don’t believe me, check a map. I’ll wait.) The coast of California curves eastward as we work our way south. But people think of the California coast as straight.
We All Think We’re Above Average
When asked, most people think they are less susceptible to judgmental biases than “the average person.” Overconfidence is a general feature of human psychology. Almost everyone is overconfident, except the people who are depressed, and they tend to be realists. An exception is weather forecasters, who get frequent, quick, detailed and objective feedback. They become better ‘calibrated.’
We Don’t Constrain Ourselves
One way to reduce errors is by introducing constraints. These are simple mental aids that keep us on the right track by limiting our alternatives. Sort of guardrails. Constraints can be physical; they can be colors or sights or sounds.
In a well-designed product, you won’t even notice the constraints. Scissors have two different hole sizes that force us to use them properly. Affordances are like constraints. For example, a doorknob only allows turning. Well-designed products guide the user into proper use.
Conclusions
How can we make fewer mistakes? For overconfidence, we are poorly calibrated, but we can train ourselves to be better calibrated. Keep track of your decisions and then track down how well you do. Beforehand, ask yourself what could go wrong. In business, create “the power of negative thinking.” Try to imagine every way something could go wrong. It is possible to almost eliminate overconfidence.
Get plenty of sleep. Lack of sleep impairs motor skills, thinking, mood and even the willingness to take risks. Happier people are also better performers.
One thing does not seem to eliminate mistakes, at least not as well as is often assumed. That thing is money. Financials incentives do not affect average performance, at least in a lab setting. For mundane tasks, money does help. For sophisticated tasks, money does not change behavior. People will work harder for money, but they don’t work smarter. In tasks that involve judgement or decisions, financial incentives hurt performance.
The currency of life isn’t money, it’s time. People know this but they have trouble doing it.
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